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It is not uncommon for spin doctors to believe in their own fairy tales and lies. This mental state of mind reflects a person’s inability to accept reality and to seek refuge in self-created “reality”.
In my article “Global Red Alert” posted to the website on 4th October 2008, I had warned that the US will be in sovereign default by the first quarter of 2009, if not the second quarter.
However, events have to deteriorate to precipitate such a catastrophe. Events are fast unwinding throughout the developed economies and I am advised that G-7 nations are already taking measures in anticipation of this catastrophe.
The Dow has been trying to maintain a support level at 9,000 but this effort has failed notwithstanding the historic bailout packages announced by the US Treasury, the FED, the ECB and G-7 governments. There was only a short historic rally of 900 points on the Dow immediately after the announcement of the bailout, but thereafter stock markets the world over have been gyrating violently sending shivers down the spine of stock traders.
This is reflected in Malaysia by the psychological break-through of the KLCI falling below the 900 points support level.
Based on my research and analysis, I am of the view that by the end of 2008 at the earliest and by the end of the first quarter 2009 at the latest, the Dow and the KLCI will plunge to between 5,000 to 6,000 points and 600 to 650 points respectively. This is a conservative estimate and it would plunge further after the US sovereign default.
When the default is triggered, expect the Dow to sink below 5,000 and global stock markets to collapse!
You don’t have to believe me, as I am not a soothsayer. But for those who are challenging my analysis, please have the audacity to say why I am wrong and what is the basis for their optimism? Additionally, for those of you who are financial advisers and stock punters, I dare challenge all of you to declare your gains (if any) that you have made since July 2007 and your net position as of 20th October 2008 – i.e. whether you are still in positive territory.
I also invite the so-called experts in the Finance Ministry, the Central Bank and financial think-tanks to reveal to the public their analyses or reports which they have submitted to their Ministers and or bosses from January 2007 to February 2008 and whether they had issued specified and detailed warnings of the Global Financial Tsunami which began to unravel in July, 2007.
If these experts cannot support their credentials and their pronouncements of optimism, it is best that they shut up and cease telling fairy tales and induce gullible retail punters, like housewives, secretaries, and small-time traders, to put their hard-earned monies in the stock market.
Just look down south to Singapore. We read on a daily basis how pensioners and others, who believed in the hype marketed by investment banks (foreign and local) that there are riches to be made in the stock markets and in exotic financial instruments, are now demanding repayment of their investments. They are also criticising the LKY government for allowing such dubious financial products to be marketed in Singapore.
Yes, Singapore is not Malaysia. But Singapore is a lousy neighbour and a big chunk of our trade goes through Singapore. Rest assured that the shit will spill over to Malaysia. |
