Live-Blogging Senate Hearing Tomorrow, When J.P. Morgan Chase Will Be Torn A New One - By Matt Taibbi (18/3/13) PDF Print E-mail
Matt Taibbi   
Monday, 18 March 2013 09:16

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Q4 2012 Flow Of Funds - By Doug Noland (15/3/13) PDF Print E-mail
Doug Noland   
Friday, 15 March 2013 10:23

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Jim Willie: France & US Liberating Mali Gold To Meet Bundesbank Repatriation Request! (15/3/13) PDF Print E-mail
Administrator   
Friday, 15 March 2013 10:21

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Denial Is Not Just A River In Egypt: 10 Hilarious Examples Of How Clueless Our Leaders Are About The Economy - By Michael Snyder (15/3/13) PDF Print E-mail
Michael Snyder   
Friday, 15 March 2013 10:14

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Kyle Bass Warns "The 'AIG' Of The World Is Back" - By Tyler Durden (14/3/13) PDF Print E-mail
Tyler Durden   
Thursday, 14 March 2013 10:06

Zero Hedge

Kyle Bass, addressing Chicago Booth's Initiative on Global Markets last week, clarified his thesis on Japan in great detail, but it was the Q&A that has roused great concern. "The AIG of the world is back - I have 27 year old kids selling me one-year jump risk on Japan for less than 1bp - $5bn at a time... and it is happening in size." As he explains, the regulatory capital hit for the bank is zero (hence as great a return on capital as one can imagine) and "if the bell tolls at the end of the year, the 27-year-old kid gets a bonus... and if he blows the bank to smithereens, ugh, he got a paycheck all year." Critically, the bank that he bought the 'cheap options' from recently called to ask if he would close the position - "that happened to me before," he warns, "in 2007 right before mortgages cracked." His single best investment idea for the next ten years is, "Sell JPY, Buy Gold, and go to sleep," as he warns of the current situation in markets, "we are right back there! The brevity of financial memory is about two years."

The main thrust of the discussion is Bass' thesis on Japan's pending collapse - which we wrote in detail on here, here, and here - and while the details of this thesis should prepare most for the worst, it is the Q&A that provides some very clear insights into just what is going on in the world.

Starting at around 50:00...


Bass On Immigration Reform in Japan - hailed as a solution to the demographic problem - Bass says "Ain't gonna happen. They need wage inflation and this will not encourage that. It's an untenable situation." Summing up his whole view on Japan - "I just don't think it can be fixed."

Question: When you look today in the capital markets at the tactical asymmetry that exists among the various financial instruments to take advantage of cheap optionality - what is that instrument?



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