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Beginning of last week, the New Straits Times reported that the President of the Federation of Malaysian Manufacturers said that exports have picked up and that Malaysian businessmen may have overestimated the severity of the impact of the financial crisis on the Malaysian economy.
However, on the very same day, the same newspaper quoted the Governor of Bank Negara, the Malaysian Central Bank, that she had underestimated the severity of the crisis and that Malaysian exports contracted in the first quarter of 2009 by 16 per cent.
I have never taken official data seriously ever since Badawi (the fifth Prime Minister) took power. Now that he has retired and Najib has taken over, no one seems to be able to get their figures right as before.
So, how do I know that our economy has not been doing well and will continue at 5 mph in the next few years?
Let me use a simple analogy.
It used to be the case when the Barisan Nasional had full control of the gravy train as well as all the train stations except one (in the state of Kelantan).
Whenever the gravy train pulls up at a railway station, the station master took the allotted share of the cargo and ensured its fair distribution. It was inevitable that there would be some pilferages, but the amount was not that much so as to cause a ruckus that someone or organization had a bigger share.
Since March 2008, the gravy train could not stop at five stations because they have been taken over by new station masters who have different ideas as to how the cargo would be distributed.
This is the cause of the gridlock!
When the Barisan Nasional was in control of both the Federal and state governments, the Menteri Besars (i.e. Chief Minister of each state and by analogy the “station masters”) could be counted upon to implement policies in accordance with the directions of the Federal Government and to ensure that everyone had a fair share of the economic cake, provided they are members and supporters of the Barisan Nasional. Securing two-thirds of the parliamentary seats is indicative that the majority of the people supported the Barisan Nasional and the electorate was duly given its share of the economic cake.
This state of affairs lasted over fifty years.
But the Badawi regime was so corrupt and useless that in the March 2008 General Elections, the people booted out the Barisan Nasional from five strategic states, the backbone states of the Malaysian economy as well as denying them the 2/3 majority in parliament.
The station masters changed!
In the result the Barisan Nasional Federal government is no longer willing to share the economic cake with the opposition controlled state governments as it would mean giving the opposition governments the financial means to mount a more serious challenge in the next General Elections.
Fancy yourself in Najib’s position. Are you willing to share the RM75 billion with the likes of Anwar Ibrahim of the Keadilan Party, Lim Kit Siang and Lim Guan Eng of the Democratic Action Party, and Hadi Awang of the Islamic Party (PAS), knowing that any allocations would merely enhance their political war chest?
Hence, the gridlock that has stalled the country’s efforts to overcome the effects of the global financial tsunami!
And everyday, the opposition is getting stronger as they have the keys to the state vaults, notwithstanding the loot is much smaller than the Federal vaults.
The logic and equation is simple.
With the resources of one state government – the state of Kelantan and the stupid policies of the Badawi regime, the Opposition was able to topple the Barisan Nasional and secured an additional four states. Their political war chest has now multiplied by five times. And any attempt by the Barisan Nasional Federal government to by-pass the state machinery in the allocation of funds would be very difficult.
The gravy train just cannot stop at the Selangor, Perak, Penang, Kedah and Kelantan train stations.
The struggle for control of the state of Perak must be viewed in this context.
There cannot be any compromise. The winner has to take all.
But this state of affairs cannot continue for long.
Sooner or later, the people who have been denied their share of the cake will get impatient and demand that the economic cake must be shared regardless of who controls the state government, as the people are the taxpayers and they cannot be denied of their rightful claim to the economic cake.
Thus the demand is not confined to any one particular community. All are getting impatient – the Malays, the Chinese, the Indians and the various indigenous communities of Sarawak and Sabah.
It will be a matter of time before a particular group would wise up and see that the gravy train which is fully laden is not stopping at their station just because the station master is not from the same political party.
If the train does not stop at the station, it is not only the members of the Opposition who are not getting a share of the economic cake, but the members and supporters of the Barisan Nasional as well. And one should never mess with hungry and restless mobs of all stripes!
Desperate times demand desperate measures and it will not be too far-fetched to say that one day, the railway track will be blocked and the train derailed.
While these desperate people may get their hands on the cargo of the derailed train, the train will no longer be able to carry any more cargo unless and until the railway tracks are repaired and the train put right and start running again.
The RM75 billion question!
Who is able to repair the train and get it running again when the technicians from both sides of the divide are busy fighting over the control of the train stations totally oblivious of the fact that if there is no gravy train, there is not much use controlling the stations?
Given the present circumstances, I suggest that we form a third technical team to repair the train and the railway tracks, post our own guards to protect the cargo and tell all the station masters (big and small) that unless they relinquish their control, they will not be allowed to come on board the gravy train.
Many people are coming to the same conclusion.
If you want to be on the gravy train, may I suggest that you join us now!
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